Estonia is conducting a large-scale revision of its defense strategy, moving away from the image of NATO’s "most vulnerable link." In the updated deterrence plan, the focus is shifting from simply holding positions within the country to the capability of delivering high-precision preemptive and retaliatory strikes. The primary tools for this policy are modern artillery systems, specifically the French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna recently emphasized that the notion of Estonia being an "easy target" is "fake news." According to the Foreign Minister, the Alliance's new defense plans and Estonia's own buildup of capabilities allow Tallinn to engage in active defense.

A Strategy of "Deep Fire"

The core message from Estonian leadership is clear: in the event of full-scale aggression, combat will not be limited to Estonian soil. The strategy involves projecting fire onto Russian territory to paralyze the logistics and command of invading forces before they even reach the border.

To implement this, Estonia is accelerating its procurement of long-range weaponry. On February 12, 2026, the Estonian Centre for Defence Investment (RKIK) confirmed a new contract with the French company KNDS for 12 additional CAESAR howitzers, bringing Estonia's total fleet of these systems to 24 units by the end of the year.

Estonia's "Artillery Fist"

The French "Caesars" are particularly valued for their ability to deploy, fire a volley at ranges of up to 40 kilometers, and vacate the position within minutes. This makes them nearly immune to counter-battery fire and ideal for strikes against targets just across the border.

Long-Term Deterrence

While the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) suggests that a direct attack in 2026–2027 is unlikely provided deterrence holds, Tallinn is operating on the necessity of a long-term buildup. Estonia’s defense spending has reached a record €2.4 billion in 2026 (approximately 5.43% of GDP), focusing on:

• Ammunition Reserves: 25% of the 2026–2029 budget.

• Air Defense: Delivery of the medium-range IRIS-T systems.

• Coastal Defense: Blue Spear anti-ship missiles.

Independent military analysts (such as those from the ECFR) note that while proximity to the Russian border remains a challenge, the technological leap and integration with NATO systems make any "sudden operation" against Estonia extremely risky and costly for Moscow.