In an interview with the Finnish publication Helsingin Sanomat, Estonian President Alar Karis addressed a topic increasingly discussed across Europe: the necessity of planning ahead for a future relationship with Russia once the war in Ukraine concludes. According to Karis, this turning point could arrive unexpectedly, and approaching it without a clear strategy would be a mistake.

Karis emphasized that it is vital for European nations to begin forming a unified stance now. This includes determining what the initial steps toward engagement might look like, what conditions must be met, and what role Russia itself will play in that process. As reported by ERR, the issue at hand is not merely the end of the conflict, but the blueprint for a new security architecture on the continent.

Security Concerns and Economic Impact

The interview began by addressing the growing anxiety regarding a potential expansion of the conflict. Public discourse frequently suggests that the Baltic states, including Estonia, could be the next targets. This atmosphere is already impacting the real economy: foreign investors are becoming more cautious, and some international events in Tallinn have been canceled due to participant concerns.

Finnish journalists noted that the image of being the "next target" is not solely shaped by external factors. According to Karis, such sentiments are often intentionally fueled to weaken the country and sow doubt. He added that these fears frequently stem from a lack of understanding of Russia, particularly in countries that do not share a history of close geographic proximity.

A Pragmatic Approach to Risks

The President also pointed out that sightings of suspicious drones have been recorded not just near Russian borders, but also in countries like Germany and Denmark. However, public reaction varies: the further a country is from Russia, the greater the sense of uncertainty and alarm. In Estonia, Karis noted, such risks are handled with a more pragmatic mindset.

The President’s comments on the need to prepare for dialogue have sparked significant resonance domestically. Given the official policy of refusing negotiations with an aggressor state, his position has become a subject of active debate. Karis clarified that this is not about softening the current approach, but rather about strategic future planning.

"The cessation of aggression remains the non-negotiable prerequisite for any contact. Only after that can new forms of interaction be discussed."

Historical Context and the Role of the EU

As a historical reference, Karis mentioned Finland's experience during the Cold War, when the country simultaneously bolstered its defenses while maintaining communication channels with the Soviet Union. However, he noted that this model cannot be mechanically applied to modern circumstances.

Regarding the role of the European Union, the President suggested that the EU should consider appointing a Special Envoy for Russia to manage preparations for the post-war phase. This would prevent a scenario where key decisions are made without considering the interests of smaller member states.

Karis concluded by emphasizing that countries actively supporting Ukraine, including Estonia and Finland, expect to be full participants in future negotiations and in the shaping of the common European agenda.