The European Commission will soon present a strategy to support EU regions located along the borders with Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. The document directly links the economic resilience of borderlands to European security, effectively formulating a new principle: a stable economy is an element of defense.

However, this is not about "new money." Until the current EU budget concludes in 2028, the plan is to redistribute existing Cohesion Policy funds.

Why Brussels is Talking About "Economy as a Security Factor"

The draft strategy, prepared by the European Commission and detailed by Politico, records a sharp deterioration in the economic situation of the EU’s eastern regions after 2022.

Key factors include:

• Closure of border crossings;

• Reduction in transit;

• Decline in tourism;

• Decrease in private investment.

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The document states explicitly: Europe’s security begins at the eastern border—and the economic desolation of these territories creates long-term risks. The strategy is to be presented by the Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, Raffaele Fitto.

What Happened to the Economy of Border Regions

Data from various EU countries show a similar dynamic.

The Baltics: Falling Transit and Business Closures According to the Estonian broadcaster Narva News, in the Ida-Virumaa region, freight transport across the eastern border has decreased by approximately 70% compared to 2021. In Narva, the situation has hit small businesses hard:

• Dozens of shops and service companies have closed;

• Tax revenues from small businesses have dropped by about 15%;

• The flow of cross-border shoppers has plummeted.

Tourism has also suffered: the number of overnight stays by foreign guests in Estonia's border areas in 2023 was roughly 40% lower than in 2019.

Finland: Decline in Trade and Tourism In Finland, following the closure of the eastern border, the turnover of border trade has been cut roughly in half. The regions of South Karelia have been particularly affected, with tourism revenues decreasing by tens of millions of euros annually. Municipal politicians emphasize that investments in jobs, education, and energy are not just economic policies, but elements of resilience.

Poland: Sharp Reduction in Freight Flows According to Polish statistics, freight traffic through eastern crossings nearly halved between 2021 and 2023. This led to:

• A drop in turnover for logistics companies;

• Decreased employment in the transport sector;

• A redistribution of trade routes.

Demographics: The Main Risk Worrying the EU

A separate section of the strategy is dedicated to the depopulation of border territories.

European officials warn directly: if the population leaves en masse, Europe’s ability to control the border will be compromised. The economic downturn is already affecting:

1. Unemployment levels;

2. Electoral sentiment;

3. Susceptibility to disinformation.

Local research confirms this: studies on the impact of border closures on media consumption in border towns found that falling incomes correlate directly with growing distrust in institutions and an increased reliance on alternative information sources.

What the Strategy Proposes

The main pillars of support include:

• Jobs: Creating new industrial clusters and retraining workers.

• Energy: Investing in local clean energy systems to reduce dependence on external supplies.

• Education: Programs to retain youth and develop university centers.

Note: All measures will be funded by redistributing existing Cohesion Policy funds.

Will There Be New Funding After 2028?

The Baltic states are already pushing for a dedicated budget line for eastern regions in the next EU financial cycle. Their arguments include:

• Rising security costs;

• Long-term economic decline;

• The strategic role of border territories.

Essentially, the current strategy is a preparatory stage for future large-scale investments.

Main Conclusion

For the first time, Europe officially recognizes that the economic health of border territories is an element of defense. While the current plan does not provide new funds, it effectively lays the groundwork for future massive financial support for the EU’s eastern border.